CEPS: MONITORING COVID19 CONTAGION Dr. Paolo Giudici, Professor, University of Pavia, Italy

Wednesday 29 April 2020, at 12:00 CEST

We propose a Poisson autoregressive model to monitor the contagion curve. When compared to standard SIR models, the proposal has the advantage to adapt to time changes and to include daily variations due, for example, to changes in testing procedures or quarantine policies. We apply the model to WHO data for the most impacted world countries.

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